Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.92
No48%
ours 2.09
All matches
—
Lecce — Genoa, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Lecce
1.1LWLLW
Genoa
1.3LDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%27%35%
Lecce38%Draw27%Genoa35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lecce2.62—
XDraw3.68—
2Genoa2.89—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLecceGenoaCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners7.512.09.8
Cards1.52.54.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LecceGenoa
US Lecce 38%, Genoa CFC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
US Lecce 38%Draw 27%Genoa CFC 35%
1st half
36 · 40 · 24
2nd half
26 · 40 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lecce
- awayAC Milan0:3
- homeMonza3:2
- awayCagliari0:1
- homeRoma0:4
- awayVenezia2:0
Genoa
- awayParma1:2
- homeFrosinone1:1
- homeComo1:4
- awayLazio0:1
- homeNapoli0:2
Head to head
- 05/24/26Serie A1:0
- 08/23/25Serie A0:0
- 03/14/25Serie A1:2
- 01/05/25Serie A0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120
Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.