All matches

Genoa — Venezia, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Genoa
1.3LDLLL
—
Venezia
0.9LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%26%25%
Genoa49%Draw26%Venezia25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Genoa49%2.04—
XDraw26%3.83—
2Venezia25%4.02—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGenoaVeneziaCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded1.331.833.16
Corners9.86.88.3
Cards2.33.86.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GenoaVenezia

Genoa CFC 49%, Venezia FC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Genoa CFC 49%Draw 26%Venezia FC 25%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
37 · 37 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Genoa

  • awayParma1:2
  • homeFrosinone1:1
  • homeComo1:4
  • awayLazio0:1
  • homeNapoli0:2

Venezia

  • homeLazio0:2
  • homeFiorentina2:4
  • awayFrosinone2:3
  • awayAC Milan0:2
  • homeLecce0:2

Head to head

  • 02/17/25Serie A2:0
  • 09/21/24Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17Fiorentina51136:124
18Bologna50233:62
19Genoa50143:101
20Venezia50054:130

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.