Both teams to score
Yes44%
Fair price 2.26
No56%
Fair price 1.79
All matches
Como vs Cagliari prediction
Italy, Serie A · UTC
VARStats prediction for 21 November: Como 73%, draw 18%, Cagliari 9%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
73%18%
Como73%Draw18%Cagliari9%
Como play in the Champions League in 3 days. Squad rotation is possible — check the line-ups about an hour before kick-off.
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
Available with PremiumUnlock
Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Como1.37—
XDraw5.62—
2Cagliari10.67—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Most likely score
The three most likely scores according to the model. A probability, not a guarantee.
- 2:0
- 1:0
- 2:1
How the model reads the match
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ComoCagliari
Como 73%Draw 18%Cagliari 9%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
3 days free →More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
3 days free →Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricComoCagliariCombined
Goals scored3.000.803.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
3 days free →Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Como- schedule13 days’ rest
- 15 goals in the last 5 matches0:2, 9:1, 1:0, 3:1, 2:0
- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches1:0, 2:0, 4:1, 0:0, 2:1
Cagliari- schedule14 days’ rest
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches1:0, 1:2, 2:4, 0:2, 0:4
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
More matches in this competition
Italy, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
3 days free →Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.