Both teams to score
Yes65%
ours 1.54
No35%
ours 2.86
All matches
Atalanta — Inter Milan, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
19%21%60%
Atalanta19%Draw21%Inter Milan60%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atalanta5.18—
XDraw4.84—
2Inter Milan1.67—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AtalantaInter Milan
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 19%, FC Internazionale Milano 60%. The safest is “FC Internazionale Milano or draw” at 81%.
Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio 19%Draw 21%FC Internazionale Milano 60%
1st half
29 · 33 · 39
2nd half
20 · 28 · 52
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 3.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtalantaInter MilanCombined
Goals scored2.202.204.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Atalanta- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches2:2, 4:4, 0:2, 2:3, 3:1
- One win in the last 5 matches2:2, 4:4, 0:2, 2:3, 3:1
Inter Milan- 4 wins in a row2:0, 2:1, 1:0, 3:1, 3:4
- Best attack in the league — 25 goals in 9 matches1st place, 25 points
- Most shots on target in the league — 7.1 per match20 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Atalanta
- awayFiorentina2:2
- homeFrosinone4:4
- awayAjax0:2
- awayAC Milan2:3
- homePaphos3:1
Inter Milan
- awayVenezia2:0
- homeFiorentina2:1
- homeShakhtar Donetsk1:0
- awayBologna3:1
- homeClub Brugge3:4
Head to head
- 03/14/26Serie A1:1
- 12/28/25Serie A0:1
- 03/16/25Serie A0:2
- 08/30/24Serie A0:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
More matches in this competition
Italy, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.