AS Roma — Genoa CFC, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 17 at 06:45 PM

AS Roma

3.3DWDWW

—

Genoa CFC

1.3LDLLL

Outcome probability

7914

AS Roma79%Draw14%Genoa CFC7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AS Roma79%1.27—

XDraw14%6.98—

2Genoa CFC7%14.49—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.62

No62%

ours 1.62

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAS RomaGenoa CFCCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded0.671.672.34

Corners8.59.89.2

Cards1.82.03.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AS RomaGenoa CFC
1Table position19
3Days of rest7.2
2Matches in 14 days1
55.30%Possession47.80%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour AS Roma: a home win is rated at 79%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans