All matches

Lecce — Bologna, Serie A

Italy, Serie A

Lecce
1.1LWLLW
—
Bologna
2.3DLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
29%26%45%
LecceMarket 4.5829%DrawMarket 3.4426%BolognaMarket 1.9845%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lecce29%22%3.504.58+6.7
XDraw26%29%3.853.44-3.1
2Bologna45%51%2.201.98-5.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96book 1.87

No49%

ours 2.04book 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLecceBolognaCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.671.503.17
Corners7.59.38.4
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LecceBologna

US Lecce 29%, Bologna FC 1909 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

US Lecce 29%Draw 26%Bologna FC 1909 45%
1st half
30 · 41 · 29
2nd half
23 · 39 · 38

Bookmakers: 4.58 · 3.44 · 1.98

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%1.24
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Lecce

  • awayAC Milan0:3
  • homeMonza3:2
  • awayCagliari0:1
  • homeRoma0:4
  • awayVenezia2:0

Bologna

  • homeTorino1:1
  • awayNapoli0:1
  • homeSassuolo2:2
  • awayAtalanta0:1
  • homeLazio0:1

Head to head

  • 04/12/26Serie A0:2
  • 09/28/25Serie A2:2
  • 02/09/25Serie A0:0
  • 11/02/24Serie A0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Sassuolo52129:97
11Atalanta52035:76
12Lecce52035:106
13Udinese51138:114
14Torino51135:84
15Parma51134:74
16Monza51138:124
17Fiorentina51136:124
18Bologna50233:62
19Genoa50143:101
20Venezia50054:130

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.