Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91
No48%
ours 2.10
All matches
—
Genoa — Juventus, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Genoa
1.3LDLLL
Juventus
3.2WWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
20%22%58%
Genoa20%Draw22%Juventus58%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Genoa5.10—
XDraw4.48—
2Juventus1.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGenoaJuventusCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded1.170.001.17
Corners11.09.010.0
Cards2.31.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GenoaJuventus
Genoa CFC 20%, Juventus FC 58%. The safest is “Juventus FC or draw” at 76%.
Genoa CFC 20%Draw 22%Juventus FC 58%
1st half
23 · 40 · 37
2nd half
25 · 37 · 38
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Genoa
- awayParma1:2
- homeFrosinone1:1
- homeComo1:4
- awayLazio0:1
- homeNapoli0:2
Juventus
- homeAtalanta2:0
- homeNEC Nijmegen5:0
- awaySassuolo2:3
- homeAC Milan1:1
- homeParma2:0
Head to head
- 04/06/26Serie A0:2
- 08/31/25Serie A0:1
- 03/29/25Serie A0:1
- 09/28/24Serie A0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
AC Milan532010:411
AC Milan532010:4116
Frosinone53119:410
Frosinone53119:4107Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109
Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120
Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.