Braga — Gil Vicente, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 19 at 07:15 PM

Braga

2.6LLDWL

Gil Vicente

1.9WDLLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

55%26%19%

BragaMarket 1.6255%DrawMarket 4.0326%Gil VicenteMarket 6.1019%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Braga55%62%1.801.62-6.4

XDraw26%25%3.844.03+1.2

2Gil Vicente19%16%5.416.10+2.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01book 2.05

No50%

ours 1.99book 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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69%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1804 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1802 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1794 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

BragaGil Vicente

Sporting Braga 55%, Gil Vicente FC 19%. The safest is “Sporting Braga or draw” at 77%.

Sporting Braga 55%Draw 26%Gil Vicente FC 19%

1st half

35 · 48 · 17

2nd half

38 · 42 · 21

Bookmakers: 1.62 · 4.03 · 6.10

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBragaGil VicenteCombined

Goals scored0.830.831.66

Conceded1.500.832.33

Corners7.88.78.3

Cards1.52.23.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.