Moreirense FC — Gil Vicente FC, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 9 at 05:45 PM

Moreirense FC

1.6DWLLW

—

Gil Vicente FC

1.8DLLDW

Outcome probability

313137

Moreirense FC31%Draw31%Gil Vicente FC37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Moreirense FC31%3.19—

XDraw31%3.19—

2Gil Vicente FC37%2.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.31

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMoreirense FCGil Vicente FCCombined

Goals scored1.000.671.67

Conceded2.000.832.83

Corners7.59.08.3

Cards2.31.84.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Moreirense FCGil Vicente FC
35.80%Possession51.20%
12Table position9
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Gil Vicente FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans