Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
Nacional — Benfica, Liga NOS
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
11%82%
Nacional6%Draw11%Benfica82%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nacional16.05—
XDraw8.73—
2Benfica1.21—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NacionalBenfica
CD Nacional Funchal 6%, SL Benfica 82%. The safest is “SL Benfica or draw” at 94%.
CD Nacional Funchal 6%Draw 11%SL Benfica 82%
1st half
13 · 34 · 54
2nd half
14 · 28 · 58
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total offsides: Under 3.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNacionalBenficaCombined
Goals scored0.802.603.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Nacional- 8 days’ rest vs 5 for the opponent
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches12 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches1:0, 2:3, 0:4, 1:3, 0:2
Benfica- 4 wins in a row2:1, 4:1, 4:1, 2:0, 1:3
- Best attack in the league — 26 goals in 9 matches2nd place, 22 points
- 13 goals in the last 5 matches2:1, 4:1, 4:1, 2:0, 1:3
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Nacional
- homeBraga1:0
- awayRio Ave2:3
- homeFamalicao0:4
- homeAlverca1:3
- awaySporting CP0:2
Benfica
- awaySanta Clara2:1
- awayOmonia4:1
- homeCeltic4:1
- homeVitoria Guimaraes2:0
- awayPorto1:3
Head to head
- 04/12/26Liga NOS0:2
- 11/29/25Liga NOS1:2
- 03/08/25Liga NOS0:3
- 12/19/24Liga NOS0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Portugal, Liga NOS: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.