Sporting Braga — Sporting Clube de Portugal, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 9 at 07:15 PM

Sporting Braga

3.5DWLWW

—

Sporting Clube de Portugal

4.0DDWWW

Outcome probability

202753

Sporting Braga20%Draw27%Sporting Clube de Portugal53%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sporting Braga20%4.89—

XDraw27%3.70—

2Sporting Clube de Portugal53%1.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSporting BragaSporting Clube de PortugalCombined

Goals scored0.832.503.33

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners7.56.87.2

Cards2.02.34.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sporting BragaSporting Clube de Portugal
6Table position3
57.30%Possession58.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Sporting Clube de Portugal still look stronger — an away win is rated at 53%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans