Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.24
All matches
Sevilla — Alaves, La Liga
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%28%25%
Sevilla47%Draw28%Alaves25%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sevilla2.13—
XDraw3.60—
2Alaves3.94—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SevillaAlaves
Sevilla FC 47%, Deportivo Alavés 25%. The safest is “Sevilla FC or draw” at 75%.
Sevilla FC 47%Draw 28%Deportivo Alavés 25%
1st half
30 · 45 · 25
2nd half
44 · 31 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSevillaAlavesCombined
Goals scored1.600.602.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Sevilla- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 6.9 per match20 teams in the league
Alaves- Winless away in 4 matches1:2, 0:0, 1:2, 1:1, 1:0
- Winless in 6 matches1:1, 1:2, 1:2, 0:0, 0:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Sevilla
- homeOsasuna2:0
- awayReal Madrid1:4
- awayLevante3:3
- homeBarcelona1:3
- awayDeportivo La Coruna1:0
Alaves
- homeMalaga1:1
- awayCelta Vigo1:2
- homeAtletico Madrid1:2
- awayAthletic Bilbao0:0
- homeValencia0:1
Head to head
- 02/14/26La Liga1:1
- 09/20/25La Liga2:1
- 04/20/25La Liga1:1
- 09/20/24La Liga1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Spain, La Liga: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.