Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.41
All matches
Torreense — Leiria, LigaPro
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%25%34%
Torreense41%Draw25%Leiria34%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Torreense2.46—
XDraw3.93—
2Leiria2.95—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3612 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3602 matches
Cards
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3593 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
TorreenseLeiria
SC União Torreense 41%, UD Leiria 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
SC União Torreense 41%Draw 25%UD Leiria 34%
1st half
28 · 38 · 34
2nd half
40 · 31 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Over 21.5
70%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTorreenseLeiriaCombined
Goals scored1.001.202.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Torreense- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- Played in Europe this week
- Won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings3:1, 0:1, 3:1, 2:1
Leiria- 9 days’ rest vs 4 for the opponent
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Torreense
- homeAmarante1:0
- awayFerencvaros1:4
- homeSunderland1:2
- awayTondela0:1
- awayLillestrom2:1
Leiria
- awayPorto II1:1
- homeAcademica0:2
- awayAmarante2:2
- homePortimonense1:0
- homeTondela2:0
Head to head
- 02/08/26LigaPro3:1
- 08/29/25LigaPro0:1
- 04/06/25LigaPro3:1
- 11/10/24LigaPro2:1
More matches in this competition
Portugal, LigaPro: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.