Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.40
All matches
—
Porto II — Leiria, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Porto II
1.6DLLWL
Leiria
2.1DWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%24%42%
Porto II34%Draw24%Leiria42%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Porto II2.91—
XDraw4.15—
2Leiria2.41—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPorto IILeiriaCombined
Goals scored0.671.672.34
Conceded1.831.002.83
Corners8.28.88.5
Cards3.61.24.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Porto IILeiria
Porto II 34%, UD Leiria 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Porto II 34%Draw 24%UD Leiria 42%
1st half
30 · 35 · 35
2nd half
29 · 37 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Porto II
- homeVizela2:2
- awayTondela0:3
- homePenafiel0:3
- awayFeirense1:0
- homeFarense1:3
Leiria
- awayAmarante2:2
- homePortimonense1:0
- homeTondela2:0
- awayLeixoes4:2
- homeBenfica II1:2
Head to head
- 02/15/26LigaPro2:2
- 09/14/25LigaPro1:2
- 02/09/25LigaPro0:0
- 09/01/24LigaPro1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:7107
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109
Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712
AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613
Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:9615
Amarante61235:85
Amarante61235:8516
Chaves61145:134
Chaves61145:13417Porto II61144:134
Porto II61144:13418
Feirense60151:81
Feirense60151:81Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.