Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.21
All matches
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Felgueiras — Lusitania Lourosa, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Felgueiras
1.8LLWDD
Lusitania Lourosa
2.0WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%25%32%
Felgueiras42%Draw25%Lusitania Lourosa32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Felgueiras2.36—
XDraw3.96—
2Lusitania Lourosa3.09—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFelgueirasLusitania LourosaCombined
Goals scored0.831.502.33
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners9.67.88.7
Cards2.42.85.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FelgueirasLusitania Lourosa
FC Felgueiras 1932 42%, FC Lusitania de Lourosa 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
FC Felgueiras 1932 42%Draw 25%FC Lusitania de Lourosa 32%
1st half
36 · 39 · 25
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Felgueiras
- homePenafiel1:2
- awayVizela0:1
- homeChaves2:1
- awayFarense1:1
- homeAVS1:1
Lusitania Lourosa
- awaySporting II2:1
- homeAVS2:1
- awayAcademica2:0
- homeTorreense2:2
- awayAmarante1:0
Head to head
- 02/07/26LigaPro1:2
- 08/30/25LigaPro3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lusitania Lourosa651011:416
Lusitania Lourosa651011:4162
Penafiel641113:513
Penafiel641113:5133
Sporting II64028:612
Sporting II64028:6124
Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116
Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:7107
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109
Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712
AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:9615
Amarante61235:85
Amarante61235:85Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.