Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
—
Leiria — AVS, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Leiria
2.1DWWWL
AVS
0.8DLWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%24%26%
Leiria50%Draw24%AVS26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Leiria2.00—
XDraw4.16—
2AVS3.85—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLeiriaAVSCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners9.07.08.0
Cards1.53.34.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LeiriaAVS
UD Leiria 50%, AVS Futebol 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
UD Leiria 50%Draw 24%AVS Futebol 26%
1st half
44 · 36 · 20
2nd half
37 · 35 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Leiria
- awayAmarante2:2
- homePortimonense1:0
- homeTondela2:0
- awayLeixoes4:2
- homeBenfica II1:2
AVS
- homeFarense0:0
- awayLusitania Lourosa1:2
- homeFeirense2:0
- awayChaves2:2
- awayFelgueiras1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:7107
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109
Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613
Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:96Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.