SC Internacional — Botafogo FR, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 24 at 07:30 PM

SC Internacional

1.7LWLLD

—

Botafogo FR

2.6LWDDL

Outcome probability

372933

SC Internacional37%Draw29%Botafogo FR33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Internacional37%2.68—

XDraw29%3.41—

2Botafogo FR33%3.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC InternacionalBotafogo FRCombined

Goals scored0.670.671.34

Conceded0.830.831.66

Corners7.07.37.2

Cards3.31.75.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC InternacionalBotafogo FR
18Table position12
7.9Days of rest6.9
44.70%Possession49.30%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Internacional look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 37%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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