Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70
No41%
ours 2.43
All matches
Palmeiras — Flamengo, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%27%29%
Palmeiras43%Draw27%Flamengo29%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Palmeiras2.31—
XDraw3.67—
2Flamengo3.40—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PalmeirasFlamengo
SE Palmeiras 43%, CR Flamengo 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
SE Palmeiras 43%Draw 27%CR Flamengo 29%
1st half
34 · 42 · 24
2nd half
37 · 32 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPalmeirasFlamengoCombined
Goals scored1.802.604.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Palmeiras- 4 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 2:0, 2:0, 4:1, 1:0
- Unbeaten in 10 matches0:0, 2:0, 2:0, 4:1, 1:0
- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches2:0, 4:1, 1:0, 2:0, 4:1
Flamengo- Unbeaten in 10 matches4:1, 3:2, 3:0, 1:0, 2:2
- Best attack in the league — 68 goals in 33 matches1st place, 73 points
- 13 goals in the last 5 matches4:1, 3:2, 3:0, 1:0, 2:2
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Palmeiras
- awaySantos0:0
- homeRed Bull Bragantino2:0
- awayAthletico Paranaense2:0
- homeCorinthians4:1
- homeBahia1:0
Flamengo
- awayVasco da Gama4:1
- homeAtletico Mineiro3:2
- awayBahia3:0
- homeFluminense1:0
- awaySantos2:2
Head to head
- 05/24/26Serie A3:0
- 10/19/25Serie A2:3
- 05/25/25Serie A0:2
- 08/11/24Serie A1:1
- 04/21/24Serie A0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Brazil, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.