All matches

Gremio — Internacional, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Gremio
1.5DLLLW
—
Internacional
1.7LWLLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
43%26%30%
Gremio43%Draw26%Internacional30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gremio43%2.32—
XDraw26%3.78—
2Internacional30%3.28—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGremioInternacionalCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.171.332.50
Corners8.87.68.2
Cards3.43.46.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GremioInternacional

Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 43%, SC Internacional 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense 43%Draw 26%SC Internacional 30%
1st half
37 · 39 · 25
2nd half
27 · 39 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Gremio

  • homePalmeiras0:0
  • awayBotafogo2:3
  • homeVasco da Gama1:2
  • awayVitoria0:1
  • homeChapecoense3:1

Internacional

  • awaySao Paulo0:1
  • awayChapecoense2:1
  • homeSantos2:3
  • awayBahia2:3
  • homeCA Mineiro0:0

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Serie A0:0
  • 09/21/25Serie A3:2
  • 04/20/25Serie A1:1
  • 10/19/24Serie A0:1
  • 06/22/24Serie A0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Gremio28781330:3829
18Internacional286101230:3628
19Remo28581532:4723
20Chapecoense27391529:5318

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.