All matches

SC Internacional — SC Corinthians Paulista, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

SC Internacional
1.7LWLLD
—
SC Corinthians Paulista
1.8LLLLL
Outcome probability
442926
SC Internacional44%Draw29%SC Corinthians Paulista26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1SC Internacional44%2.26—
XDraw29%3.42—
2SC Corinthians Paulista26%3.79—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.42

No59%

ours 1.71

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC InternacionalSC Corinthians PaulistaCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded1.502.003.50
Corners7.812.810.3
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    SC InternacionalSC Corinthians Paulista
    18Table position14
    44.70%Possession55.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SC Internacional look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

SC Internacional

  • awaySão Paulo FC0:1
  • awayChapecoense AF2:1
  • homeSantos FC Sao Paulo2:3
  • awayEC Bahia2:3
  • homeCA Mineiro0:0

SC Corinthians Paulista

  • homeFluminense FC1:3
  • awayCR Flamengo1:2
  • homeChapecoense AF1:2
  • homeSantos FC Sao Paulo0:1
  • awayCoritiba FBC1:2

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Serie A1:0
  • 10/01/25Serie A1:1
  • 05/03/25Serie A2:4
  • 10/05/24Serie A2:2
  • 06/20/24Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Botafogo FR28981141:4535
13EC Vitória28961328:4233
14SC Corinthians Paulista28881229:3232
15Mirassol Futebol Clube28881233:4232
16CR Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28781330:3829
18SC Internacional286101230:3628
19Clube do Remo28581532:4723
20Chapecoense AF27391529:5318

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.