Botafogo FR — CR Vasco da Gama, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 7 at 11:30 PM

Botafogo FR

2.6LWDDL

—

CR Vasco da Gama

1.6WWLWL

Outcome probability

572419

Botafogo FR57%Draw24%CR Vasco da Gama19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Botafogo FR57%1.74—

XDraw24%4.18—

2CR Vasco da Gama19%5.34—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.68

No41%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBotafogo FRCR Vasco da GamaCombined

Goals scored1.001.832.83

Conceded1.831.673.50

Corners9.810.310.1

Cards2.02.54.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Botafogo FRCR Vasco da Gama
12Table position16
45.50%Possession52.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Botafogo FR: a home win is rated at 57%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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