Coritiba FBC — Botafogo FR, Serie A

Brazil, Serie AOctober 12 at 07:00 PM

Coritiba FBC

2.3LDLWW

—

Botafogo FR

2.6LWDDL

Outcome probability

382833

Coritiba FBC38%Draw28%Botafogo FR33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Coritiba FBC38%2.60—

XDraw28%3.56—

2Botafogo FR33%2.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.56

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCoritiba FBCBotafogo FRCombined

Goals scored1.500.672.17

Conceded2.171.333.50

Corners13.68.811.2

Cards2.02.04.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Coritiba FBCBotafogo FR
9Table position12
3.8Days of rest4.8
43.40%Possession43.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Coritiba FBC: a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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