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Sabah 3:1 Mil Mugan, Premier League: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Azerbaijan, Premier LeagueMatch finished

3.3LDLWW
3:1HT 2:0
1.6LWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
78%15%
Sabah78%Draw15%Mil Mugan7%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.99xG1.51
69Possession, %31
13Shots12
7Shots on target6
3Corners4
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
17Fouls7
1Offsides4

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 74 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Sabah78%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.551%
  • Both teams to score Missed
    No66%

    Actual: Yes — we had 34%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Sabah78%1.28—
XDraw15%6.59—
2Mil Mugan7%14.84—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Sabah

  • awayTuran-T2:3
  • homeQarabag0:0
  • homeBorussia Dortmund1:2
  • awayQabala4:0
  • homeSlavia Prague2:0

Mil Mugan

  • awayKapaz0:1
  • homeShamakhi2:1
  • homeTuran-T1:0
  • homeQarabag0:2
  • awaySabah1:3

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Premier League3:1
  • 03/14/26Premier League5:0
  • 11/29/25Premier League3:0
  • 08/31/25Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Baku1063125:1121
2Sabah962120:420
3Qarabag954014:719
4Turan-T1053211:818
5Kapaz952210:917
6Zira1044214:1416
7Shamakhi1034315:1413
8Mil Mugan103169:1510
9Sumqayit822412:138
10Qabala102265:168

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.