All matches

Neftchi Baku — Kapaz, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Neftchi Baku
2.7WWWLW
—
Kapaz
0.9DWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
76%17%
Neftchi Baku76%Draw17%Kapaz7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Neftchi Baku76%1.32—
XDraw17%5.83—
2Kapaz7%14.16—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNeftchi BakuKapazCombined
Goals scored1.670.502.17
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners8.76.07.3
Cards1.72.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Neftchi BakuKapaz

Neftçi PFC Bakı 76%, FK Kapaz 7%. The safest is “Neftçi PFC Bakı or draw” at 89%.

Neftçi PFC Bakı 76%Draw 17%FK Kapaz 7%
1st half
55 · 34 · 12
2nd half
45 · 35 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Neftchi Baku

  • awayQabala3:0
  • awayMil Mugan3:2
  • homeSafa4:1
  • awayZira0:1
  • homeAraz5:0

Kapaz

  • homeSumqayit1:1
  • homeQabala1:0
  • homeInter Baki1:4
  • homeTuran-T1:0
  • awaySabah0:2

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Premyer Liqası1:0
  • 02/15/26Premyer Liqası3:1
  • 11/01/25Premyer Liqası5:1
  • 05/04/25Premyer Liqası2:2
  • 03/05/25Premyer Liqası0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Baku650118:515
2Sabah550014:115
3Qarabag54109:413
4Turan-T63216:411
5Zira63127:810
6Inter Baki62318:69
7Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Mugan61146:114
9Qabala61142:74

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.