Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91
No48%
ours 2.10
All matches
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Safa — Araz, Premyer Liqası
Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası
Safa
1.7LLLLW
Araz
1.8LDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%27%34%
Safa39%Draw27%Araz34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Safa2.55—
XDraw3.72—
2Araz2.94—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSafaArazCombined
Goals scored0.170.831.00
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners9.710.310.0
Cards0.73.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SafaAraz
FK Safa 39%, Araz FK 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FK Safa 39%Draw 27%Araz FK 34%
1st half
28 · 44 · 28
2nd half
30 · 40 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Safa
- awayQarabag0:1
- homeSabah0:3
- awayNeftchi Baku1:4
- homeMil Mugan0:1
- awayQabala1:0
Araz
- awayInter Baki1:2
- homeTuran-T2:2
- awayQarabag2:3
- homeSabah0:1
- awayNeftchi Baku0:5
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
Mil Mugan61146:114
Mil Mugan61146:1149
Qabala61142:74
Qabala61142:7410Safa61052:113
Safa61052:11311
Sumqayit50234:82
Sumqayit50234:8212Araz60245:132
Araz60245:132Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.