Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.93
No48%
ours 2.08
All matches
Kapaz — Mil Mugan, Premier League
Azerbaijan, Premier League
Kapaz
1.3WDWDW
Mil Mugan
1.5WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
34%28%38%
Kapaz34%Draw28%Mil Mugan38%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
Available with PremiumUnlock
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kapaz2.98—
XDraw3.53—
2Mil Mugan2.62—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This market opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3273 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3263 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3246 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
KapazMil Mugan
FK Kapaz 34%, Mil Muğan FK 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 70%.
FK Kapaz 34%Draw 28%Mil Muğan FK 38%
1st half
26 · 46 · 28
2nd half
35 · 38 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total fouls: Under 26.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricKapazMil MuganCombined
Goals scored1.401.202.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Kapaz- Unbeaten in 5 matches2:1, 1:1, 2:0, 1:1, 1:0
- 11th of 12 for corners — 8.1 per match12 teams in the league
- 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Mil Mugan- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
- 2nd in the league for corners — 10.0 per match12 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Kapaz
- awaySafa2:1
- homeZira1:1
- awayAraz2:0
- homeSumqayit1:1
- homeQabala1:0
Mil Mugan
- homeShamakhi2:1
- homeTuran-T1:0
- homeQarabag0:2
- awaySabah1:3
- homeNeftchi Baku2:3
Head to head
- 04/19/26Premier League0:1
- 02/09/26Premier League0:0
- 10/24/25Premier League0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Turan-T94328:615
Turan-T94328:6155
Zira943212:1215
Zira943212:12156
Kapaz84229:914
Kapaz84229:9147
Shamakhi934213:1113
Shamakhi934213:11138
Mil Mugan93159:1410
Mil Mugan93159:14109
Sumqayit822412:138
Sumqayit822412:13810
Qabala92165:167
Qabala92165:167Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.