All matches

Qarabag — Turan-T, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Qarabag
3.4WDWWL
—
Turan-T
2.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
59%24%17%
Qarabag59%Draw24%Turan-T17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Qarabag59%1.68—
XDraw24%4.20—
2Turan-T17%5.96—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricQarabagTuran-TCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners9.38.08.7
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

QarabagTuran-T

Qarabağ Ağdam FK 59%, Turan-T IK 17%. The safest is “Qarabağ Ağdam FK or draw” at 78%.

Qarabağ Ağdam FK 59%Draw 24%Turan-T IK 17%
1st half
40 · 42 · 18
2nd half
38 · 38 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Qarabag

  • homeSafa1:0
  • awayZira1:1
  • homeAraz3:2
  • awaySumqayit1:0
  • homeTwente1:4

Turan-T

  • homeZira1:0
  • awayAraz2:2
  • homeSumqayit2:1
  • awayKapaz0:1
  • homeInter Baki0:0

Head to head

  • 05/04/26Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 02/01/26Premyer Liqası1:0
  • 10/17/25Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 03/28/25Premyer Liqası4:1
  • 01/26/25Premyer Liqası1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Baku650118:515
2Sabah550014:115
3Qarabag54109:413
4Turan-T63216:411
5Zira63127:810
6Inter Baki62318:69

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.