Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.28
All matches
Sumqayit — Safa, Premier League
Azerbaijan, Premier League
Sumqayit
1.4LWWDD
Safa
1.5LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%28%27%
Sumqayit45%Draw28%Safa27%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sumqayit2.20—
XDraw3.63—
2Safa3.70—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3520 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3509 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3486 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SumqayitSafa
FK Sumqayıt 45%, FK Safa 27%. The safest is “FK Sumqayıt or draw” at 74%.
FK Sumqayıt 45%Draw 28%FK Safa 27%
1st half
41 · 42 · 17
2nd half
45 · 33 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSumqayitSafaCombined
Goals scored2.000.602.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Sumqayit- 10 goals in the last 5 matches2:3, 2:1, 4:1, 1:1, 1:1
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 52:3, 2:1, 4:1, 1:1, 1:1
Safa- 7 defeats in a row1:2, 2:3, 0:1, 0:1, 0:3
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
- Relegation zone: 11th of 12
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Sumqayit
- awayZira2:3
- homeAraz2:1
- homeQabala4:1
- awayKapaz1:1
- homeShamakhi1:1
Safa
- homeKapaz1:2
- awayShamakhi2:3
- homeTuran-T0:1
- awayQarabag0:1
- homeSabah0:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Shamakhi934213:1113
Shamakhi934213:11138
Mil Mugan93159:1410
Mil Mugan93159:14109
Sumqayit822412:138
Sumqayit822412:13810
Qabala92165:167
Qabala92165:16711
Safa91085:173
Safa91085:17312
Araz90277:192
Araz90277:192Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.