Villarreal CF — Elche CF, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 17 at 02:15 PM

Villarreal CF

2.5WWLLL

—

Elche CF

2.0WLDLL

Outcome probability

7118

Villarreal CF71%Draw18%Elche CF12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Villarreal CF71%1.42—

XDraw18%5.70—

2Elche CF12%8.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVillarreal CFElche CFCombined

Goals scored1.501.673.17

Conceded1.171.833.00

Corners11.89.810.8

Cards1.52.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Villarreal CFElche CF
9Table position18
2Matches in 14 days1
3.8Days of rest6.1
58.80%Possession48.40%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Villarreal CF: a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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