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Qarabag 1:0 Safa, Premier League: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Azerbaijan, Premier LeagueMatch finished

3.3DDDWW
1:0HT 0:0
1.5LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
93%
QarabagPrice 1.0693%DrawPrice 8.205%SafaPrice 19.501%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.41xG0.61
77Possession, %23
20Shots4
7Shots on target2
7Corners2
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
15Fouls9
2Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 2
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 81 of 99void — 1
  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.571%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 29%

  • Both teams to score Landed
    No76%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Qarabag93%92%1.071.06+0.7
XDraw5%6%18.328.20-0.3
2Safa1%2%72.4619.50-0.4

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Qarabag

  • awayQabala0:0
  • awaySabah0:0
  • homeNeftchi Baku3:3
  • awayMil Mugan2:0
  • homeSafa1:0

Safa

  • homeKapaz1:2
  • awayShamakhi2:3
  • homeTuran-T0:1
  • awayQarabag0:1
  • homeSabah0:3

Head to head

  • 09/18/26Premier League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftchi Baku1063125:1121
2Sabah962120:420
3Qarabag954014:719
4Turan-T1053211:818
5Kapaz952210:917
6Zira1044214:1416
7Shamakhi1034315:1413
8Mil Mugan103169:1510
9Sumqayit822412:138
10Qabala102265:168
11Araz100379:213
12Safa91085:173

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.