All matches

PSV Eindhoven — Feyenoord Rotterdam, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven
3.8LWDWW
—
Feyenoord Rotterdam
3.0WWLWD
Outcome probability
582319
PSV Eindhoven58%Draw23%Feyenoord Rotterdam19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PSV Eindhoven58%1.71—
XDraw23%4.40—
2Feyenoord Rotterdam19%5.28—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes76%

ours 1.31

No24%

ours 4.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPSV EindhovenFeyenoord RotterdamCombined
Goals scored1.002.003.00
Conceded0.670.000.67
Corners12.510.011.3
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PSV EindhovenFeyenoord Rotterdam
    3Table position2
    4.8Days of rest3.8
    68.00%Possession59.50%
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    PSV Eindhoven look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PSV Eindhoven

  • awayFC Twente2:3
  • homeSparta Rotterdam4:1
  • homeFC Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
  • awayAFC Ajax3:1
  • awayFC Utrecht6:1

Feyenoord Rotterdam

  • homeFC Utrecht5:0
  • awayPEC Zwolle7:0
  • awayFC Barcelona1:5
  • awayNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie3:1
  • homeHFC ADO Den Haag2:2

Head to head

  • 02/01/26Eredivisie3:0
  • 10/26/25Eredivisie3:2
  • 05/11/25Eredivisie3:2
  • 12/22/24Eredivisie3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Alkmaar Zaanstreek761018:619
2Feyenoord Rotterdam752025:717
3PSV Eindhoven751124:1016
4FC Twente751115:716
5AFC Ajax742121:914

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.