HFC ADO Den Haag — PSV Eindhoven, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 17 at 02:30 PM

HFC ADO Den Haag

2.9DLLDL

—

PSV Eindhoven

3.8LWDWW

Outcome probability

HFC ADO Den Haag6%Draw12%PSV Eindhoven82%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1HFC ADO Den Haag6%15.97—

XDraw12%8.29—

2PSV Eindhoven82%1.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.71

No42%

ours 2.40

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHFC ADO Den HaagPSV EindhovenCombined

Goals scored1.001.672.67

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners9.68.38.9

Cards2.23.05.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
HFC ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven
17Table position3
1Matches in 14 days2
6.1Days of rest3.8
48.60%Possession59.30%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
PSV Eindhoven travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 82%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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