PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

PSV Eindhoven

3.8LWDWW

—

SC Heerenveen

2.0WDLDL

Outcome probability

PSV Eindhoven82%Draw12%SC Heerenveen6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1PSV Eindhoven82%1.22—

XDraw12%8.47—

2SC Heerenveen6%15.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.53

No35%

ours 2.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPSV EindhovenSC HeerenveenCombined

Goals scored3.501.675.17

Conceded1.331.502.83

Corners9.810.510.2

Cards2.30.83.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
PSV EindhovenSC Heerenveen
3Table position10
60.80%Possession55.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
PSV Eindhoven look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 82%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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