SC Telstar — Feyenoord Rotterdam, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 17 at 06:00 PM

SC Telstar

1.8LDLDL

—

Feyenoord Rotterdam

3.0WWLWD

Outcome probability

2166

SC Telstar13%Draw21%Feyenoord Rotterdam66%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Telstar13%7.69—

XDraw21%4.77—

2Feyenoord Rotterdam66%1.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.95

No49%

ours 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC TelstarFeyenoord RotterdamCombined

Goals scored0.332.673.00

Conceded1.331.002.33

Corners9.46.88.1

Cards1.41.32.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC TelstarFeyenoord Rotterdam
13Table position2
1Matches in 14 days2
6.2Days of rest3.1
39.20%Possession46.30%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Feyenoord Rotterdam travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 66%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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