Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.60
No38%
ours 2.66
All matches
—
Porto — PSV, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Porto
4.0WWLWW
PSV
3.8LWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%23%24%
Porto53%Draw23%PSV24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Porto1.89—
XDraw4.38—
2PSV4.15—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortoPSVCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners9.510.39.9
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PortoPSV
FC Porto 53%, PSV Eindhoven 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
FC Porto 53%Draw 23%PSV Eindhoven 24%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Porto
- homeBenfica3:1
- awayCasa Pia4:1
- homeManchester City0:2
- homeMoreirense2:1
- awayAcademico de Viseu3:0
PSV
- awayTwente2:3
- homeSparta Rotterdam4:1
- homeShakhtar Donetsk1:1
- awayAjax3:1
- awayUtrecht6:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
52
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:1153
Roma10101:11
Roma10101:1154PSV10101:11
PSV10101:1155
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:6156
Flora20114:51
Flora20114:5157
Thun20113:41
Thun20113:4158
Drita20113:41
Drita20113:4159
ETO Gyor20112:31
ETO Gyor20112:3160
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2161
Olympiakos20111:21
Olympiakos20111:2162
Inter Escaldes20112:41
Inter Escaldes20112:4163
Borac Banja Luka20111:51
Borac Banja Luka20111:5164
Petrocub20112:71
Petrocub20112:7165
Slavia Prague10012:30
Slavia Prague10012:3066
Lille10012:30
Lille10012:3067
Villarreal10012:30
Villarreal10012:3068
Club Brugge10012:30
Club Brugge10012:3069
Inter Milan10011:20
Inter Milan10011:2070
Atletico Madrid10011:20
Atletico Madrid10011:2071
Napoli10010:10
Napoli10010:1072
Atert Bissen20022:40
Atert Bissen20022:4073
Galatasaray10011:30
Galatasaray10011:3074
Tre Fiori20021:30
Tre Fiori20021:3075Porto10010:20
Porto10010:2076
TNS20021:40
TNS20021:4077
Sutjeska20021:40
Sutjeska20021:40Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.