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Twente vs PSV: result 3:2

Netherlands, EredivisieMatch finished

Final score 3:2. Before kick-off VARStats gave: PSV 51%, Twente 27%, draw 22%.

2.9WWWLW
3:2HT 1:2
3.6WDWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
27%22%51%
TwentePrice 2.8927%DrawPrice 4.0422%PSVPrice 2.2351%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.96xG1.48
40Possession, %60
21Shots11
5Shots on target4
6Corners5
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
10Fouls12
0Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 76 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    PSV51%

    Actual: Twente — we had 27%

  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.573%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes72%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Twente27%33%3.772.89-6.6
XDraw22%23%4.554.04-1.4
2PSV51%43%1.942.23+8.0

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Twente

  • awayExcelsior9:0
  • awayAZ Alkmaar2:0
  • awayLincoln Red Imps4:1
  • homeUtrecht1:2
  • homeThun1:0

PSV

  • homeWillem II7:0
  • homeFeyenoord1:1
  • awayPorto1:0
  • awayADO Den Haag1:2
  • awayRB Leipzig0:1

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Eredivisie3:2
  • 05/17/26Eredivisie1:5
  • 08/17/25Eredivisie0:2
  • 04/24/25Eredivisie1:3
  • 12/06/24Eredivisie1:6

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Feyenoord1174033:1225
2Ajax1173130:1324
3PSV1172235:1323
4Twente1172228:1023
5AZ Alkmaar1162320:1320
6Fortuna Sittard1154218:1819

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.