All matches

OFK Petrovac — FK Mladost Donja Gorica, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

OFK Petrovac
1.9LLDDD
—
FK Mladost Donja Gorica
1.6LLWWL
Outcome probability
492625
OFK Petrovac49%Draw26%FK Mladost Donja Gorica25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1OFK Petrovac49%2.06—
XDraw26%3.86—
2FK Mladost Donja Gorica25%3.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.02

No50%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOFK PetrovacFK Mladost Donja GoricaCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners8.311.39.8
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    OFK PetrovacFK Mladost Donja Gorica
    9Table position7
    48.30%Possession55.00%
    4Days of rest4
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    OFK Petrovac look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 49%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

OFK Petrovac

  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica1:4
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat1:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:1

FK Mladost Donja Gorica

  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor0:3
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica0:2
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat1:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić1:5

Head to head

  • 08/22/26Montenegrin First League0:0
  • 05/10/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 03/11/26Montenegrin First League3:1
  • 11/09/25Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 09/13/25Montenegrin First League4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.