All matches

FK Jezero Plav — OFK Petrovac, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Jezero Plav
1.4LDLWL
—
OFK Petrovac
1.9LLDDD
Outcome probability
352837
FK Jezero Plav35%Draw28%OFK Petrovac37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Jezero Plav35%2.88—
XDraw28%3.57—
2OFK Petrovac37%2.69—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Jezero PlavOFK PetrovacCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.671.172.84
Corners5.58.87.1
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Jezero PlavOFK Petrovac
    8Table position9
    53.00%Possession47.50%
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, OFK Petrovac still look stronger — an away win is rated at 37%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Jezero Plav

  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:4
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor1:1
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:3
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat5:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:2

OFK Petrovac

  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica1:4
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat1:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:0
  • homeFK Mornar Bar1:1

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Montenegrin First League0:3
  • 04/12/26Montenegrin First League1:1
  • 02/21/26Montenegrin First League1:2
  • 10/05/25Montenegrin First League1:3
  • 08/10/25Montenegrin First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.