All matches

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj — FK Mladost Donja Gorica, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
1.6WWLWW
—
FK Mladost Donja Gorica
1.6LLWWL
Outcome probability
512425
FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj51%Draw24%FK Mladost Donja Gorica25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj51%1.97—
XDraw24%4.10—
2FK Mladost Donja Gorica25%4.03—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.60

No37%

ours 2.67

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Otrant-Olympic UlcinjFK Mladost Donja GoricaCombined
Goals scored1.670.672.34
Conceded1.171.672.84
Corners8.510.29.3
Cards3.21.04.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Otrant-Olympic UlcinjFK Mladost Donja Gorica
    1Table position7
    47.80%Possession50.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

  • homeFK Jezero Plav4:1
  • awayFK Mornar Bar1:0
  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor1:2
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica2:0
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat2:1

FK Mladost Donja Gorica

  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor0:3
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica0:2
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat1:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić1:5

Head to head

  • 08/02/26Montenegrin First League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj951315:1016
2FK Dečić943210:715
3FK Bokelj Kotor94328:515
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.