All matches

FK Mladost Donja Gorica — FK Jezero Plav, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Mladost Donja Gorica
1.6LLWWL
—
FK Jezero Plav
1.4LDLWL
Outcome probability
452628
FK Mladost Donja Gorica45%Draw26%FK Jezero Plav28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Mladost Donja Gorica45%2.20—
XDraw26%3.82—
2FK Jezero Plav28%3.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Mladost Donja GoricaFK Jezero PlavCombined
Goals scored0.671.332.00
Conceded1.672.003.67
Corners11.65.28.4
Cards1.21.62.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Mladost Donja GoricaFK Jezero Plav
    7Table position8
    51.00%Possession53.00%
    8Days of rest8
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Mladost Donja Gorica: a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Mladost Donja Gorica

  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor0:3
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica0:2
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat1:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić1:5

FK Jezero Plav

  • awayFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1:4
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor1:1
  • awayFK Budućnost Podgorica0:3
  • homeFK Arsenal Tivat5:2
  • awayFK Dečić1:2

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 05/16/26Montenegrin First League2:2
  • 03/15/26Montenegrin First League3:1
  • 11/22/25Montenegrin First League0:1
  • 09/17/25Montenegrin First League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98
10FK Arsenal Tivat91445:117

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.