Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.06
All matches
Mornar — Decic, First League
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%30%25%
Mornar46%Draw30%Decic25%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mornar2.18—
XDraw3.39—
2Decic4.05—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3725 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3714 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3703 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MornarDecic
FK Mornar Bar 46%, FK Dečić 25%. The safest is “FK Mornar Bar or draw” at 75%.
FK Mornar Bar 46%Draw 29%FK Dečić 25%
1st half
27 · 48 · 25
2nd half
42 · 36 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMornarDecicCombined
Goals scored2.400.603.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Mornar- Most corners in the league in their matches — 12.0 per match10 teams in the league
- 12 goals in the last 5 matches2:3, 4:1, 2:1, 3:3, 1:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches9 goals conceded
Decic- One win in the last 5 matches2:0, 0:2, 0:1, 1:1, 0:2
- 2 goals or fewer in 5 of the last 5
- 9th of 10 for yellow cards — 1.4 per match10 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Mornar
- awayBuducnost2:3
- homeMladost Donja Gorica4:1
- awayArsenal Tivat2:1
- homeJezero Plav3:3
- awayDecic1:1
Decic
- homeOtrant-Olympic Ulcinj2:0
- awayBokelj Kotor0:2
- homeBuducnost0:1
- homeMornar1:1
- awaySutjeska0:2
Head to head
- 09/20/26First League1:1
- 04/18/26First League1:0
- 02/25/26First League0:0
- 10/18/25First League1:0
- 08/17/25First League1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Montenegro, First League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.