OFK Petrovac — FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First LeagueOctober 18 at 03:00 PM

OFK Petrovac

1.9LLDDD

—

FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

1.6WWLWW

Outcome probability

422731

OFK Petrovac42%Draw27%FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1OFK Petrovac42%2.37—

XDraw27%3.73—

2FK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj31%3.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOFK PetrovacFK Otrant-Olympic UlcinjCombined

Goals scored0.671.672.34

Conceded1.330.672.00

Corners8.68.68.6

Cards1.63.24.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
OFK PetrovacFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
9Table position1
50.00%Possession49.40%
8Days of rest8
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
OFK Petrovac look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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