All matches

FK Mornar Bar — FK Mladost Donja Gorica, Montenegrin First League

Montenegro, Montenegrin First League

FK Mornar Bar
2.3DLLWD
—
FK Mladost Donja Gorica
1.6LLWWL
Outcome probability
582319
FK Mornar Bar58%Draw23%FK Mladost Donja Gorica19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Mornar Bar58%1.74—
XDraw23%4.30—
2FK Mladost Donja Gorica19%5.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.04

No51%

ours 1.96

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFK Mornar BarFK Mladost Donja GoricaCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners11.811.311.5
Cards1.31.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FK Mornar BarFK Mladost Donja Gorica
    6Table position7
    46.00%Possession51.80%
    6Days of rest6
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Mornar Bar: a home win is rated at 58%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FK Mornar Bar

  • awayFK Dečić1:1
  • homeFK Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0:1
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić0:1
  • homeFK Bokelj Kotor2:0
  • awayOFK Petrovac1:1

FK Mladost Donja Gorica

  • awayFK Bokelj Kotor0:3
  • homeFK Budućnost Podgorica0:2
  • awayFK Arsenal Tivat1:0
  • homeFK Dečić2:0
  • awayFK Sutjeska Nikšić1:5

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Montenegrin First League3:2
  • 04/26/26Montenegrin First League2:1
  • 03/01/26Montenegrin First League3:0
  • 10/26/25Montenegrin First League3:1
  • 08/24/25Montenegrin First League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FK Sutjeska Nikšić942311:714
5FK Budućnost Podgorica942311:714
6FK Mornar Bar93429:713
7FK Mladost Donja Gorica93158:1510
8FK Jezero Plav92349:159
9OFK Petrovac91537:98

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.