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Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski prediction

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League · UTC

VARStats prediction for 29 November: Zrinjski 63%, draw 22%, Siroki Brijeg 15%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.

  
3.5WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
15%22%63%
Siroki Brijeg15%Draw22%Zrinjski63%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Siroki Brijeg15%6.88—
XDraw22%4.51—
2Zrinjski63%1.58—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

Fair price 2.44

No59%

Fair price 1.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4542 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4527 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4514 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Most likely score

The three most likely scores according to the model. A probability, not a guarantee.

  1. 0:1Siroki Brijeg — Zrinjski · 17 %
  2. 0:2Siroki Brijeg — Zrinjski · 13 %
  3. 1:1Siroki Brijeg — Zrinjski · 10 %

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Siroki BrijegZrinjski

NK Široki Brijeg 15%, HŠK Zrinjski Mostar 63%. The safest is “HŠK Zrinjski Mostar or draw” at 87%.

NK Široki Brijeg 15%Draw 22%HŠK Zrinjski Mostar 63%
1st half
20 · 44 · 35
2nd half
13 · 37 · 49
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 9.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSiroki BrijegZrinjskiCombined
Goals scored0.603.203.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Siroki Brijeg
  • schedule8 days’ rest
  • 3 clean sheets in the last 50:2, 0:0, 1:0, 0:0, 2:3
  • Winless at home in 4 matches0:0, 2:3, 1:1, 1:2, 2:1
  • 5 draws in 12 matches — most in the league4th place, 14 points
Zrinjski
  • schedule7 days’ rest
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 54:0, 1:0, 3:0, 6:2, 2:0
  • 16 goals in the last 5 matches4:0, 1:0, 3:0, 6:2, 2:0
  • 5 wins in a row4:0, 1:0, 3:0, 6:2, 2:0

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Siroki Brijeg

Zrinjski

Head to head

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Zrinjski12110131:733
2Borac Banja Luka1191123:928
3FK Sarajevo1254310:719
4Siroki Brijeg1235411:1314
5BSK Banja Luka1234517:2013
6Zeljeznicar1234512:1913

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.