All matches

Velez Mostar — Siroki Brijeg, Premier League of Bosnia

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League of Bosnia

Velez Mostar
1.8LWLDL
—
Siroki Brijeg
1.8LDLLD
Outcome probability
502625
Velez Mostar50%Draw26%Siroki Brijeg25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Velez Mostar50%2.02—
XDraw26%3.86—
2Siroki Brijeg25%4.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.24

No55%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVelez MostarSiroki BrijegCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded1.501.673.17
Corners8.57.07.8
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Velez MostarSiroki Brijeg
    9Table position5
    45.20%Possession47.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Velež Mostar: a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Velez Mostar

  • awayZrinjski0:2
  • homeFK Sarajevo1:0
  • awayZeljeznicar1:3
  • homeRadnik Bijeljina1:1
  • awayCelik Zenica0:3

Siroki Brijeg

  • homeBorac Banja Luka2:3
  • homeBSK Banja Luka1:1
  • awayZrinjski1:2
  • homeFK Sarajevo1:2
  • awayZeljeznicar1:1

Head to head

  • 04/21/26Premier League of Bosnia3:0
  • 02/15/26Premier League of Bosnia0:1
  • 10/25/25Premier League of Bosnia1:0
  • 08/10/25Premier League of Bosnia3:1
  • 03/28/25Premier League of Bosnia5:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3FK Sarajevo84136:513
4Zeljeznicar833210:912
5Siroki Brijeg823310:119
6Sloga Doboj82335:89
7Celik Zenica822411:128
8BSK Banja Luka822412:148
9Velez Mostar82156:147
10Radnik Bijeljina804412:194

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.