Sloga Doboj — Zrinjski, Premier League of Bosnia

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League of BosniaOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Sloga Doboj

1.4LLDWD

—

Zrinjski

3.3WLWWW

Outcome probability

1675

Sloga Doboj9%Draw16%Zrinjski75%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sloga Doboj9%11.42—

XDraw16%6.07—

2Zrinjski75%1.34—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes24%

ours 4.10

No76%

ours 1.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSloga DobojZrinjskiCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners7.38.07.7

Cards2.02.04.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sloga DobojZrinjski
6Table position1
46.30%Possession50.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
HŠK Zrinjski Mostar travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 75%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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