HŠK Zrinjski Mostar — FK Radnik Bijeljina, Premier League of Bosnia

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League of BosniaOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

HŠK Zrinjski Mostar

3.3WLWWW

—

FK Radnik Bijeljina

1.2DLLDD

Outcome probability

HŠK Zrinjski Mostar89%Draw8%FK Radnik Bijeljina4%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1HŠK Zrinjski Mostar89%1.13—

XDraw8%13.07—

2FK Radnik Bijeljina4%26.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.88

No65%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHŠK Zrinjski MostarFK Radnik BijeljinaCombined

Goals scored1.171.332.50

Conceded0.501.672.17

Corners8.89.59.1

Cards2.83.05.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
HŠK Zrinjski MostarFK Radnik Bijeljina
1Table position10
50.00%Possession48.80%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour HŠK Zrinjski Mostar: a home win is rated at 89%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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