Radnik Bijeljina — Siroki Brijeg, Premier League of Bosnia

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Premier League of BosniaOctober 31 at 12:00 AM

Radnik Bijeljina

1.2DLLDD

—

Siroki Brijeg

1.8LDLLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

41%25%34%

Radnik Bijeljina41%Draw25%Siroki Brijeg34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Radnik Bijeljina41%2.43—

XDraw25%4.05—

2Siroki Brijeg34%2.92—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRadnik BijeljinaSiroki BrijegCombined

Goals scored1.170.671.84

Conceded1.501.002.50

Corners9.76.38.0

Cards3.72.05.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Radnik BijeljinaSiroki Brijeg

FK Radnik Bijeljina 41%, NK Široki Brijeg 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

FK Radnik Bijeljina 41%Draw 25%NK Široki Brijeg 34%

1st half

39 · 37 · 24

2nd half

31 · 41 · 29

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context