Both teams to score
Yes44%
ours 2.28
No56%
ours 1.78
All matches
Larne — Dungannon Swifts, Premiership
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
70%17%12%
Larne70%Draw17%Dungannon Swifts12%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Larne1.42—
XDraw5.78—
2Dungannon Swifts8.01—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LarneDungannon Swifts
Larne FC 70%, Dungannon Swifts FC 12%. The safest is “Larne FC or draw” at 88%.
Larne FC 70%Draw 17%Dungannon Swifts FC 12%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
55 · 32 · 13
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Under 23.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLarneDungannon SwiftsCombined
Goals scored1.400.802.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Larne- Best defence in the league — 10 conceded in 12 matches3rd place, 26 points
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
Dungannon Swifts- Winless in 7 matches1:3, 0:0, 2:4, 0:2, 1:1
- Most corners in the league in their matches — 11.2 per match12 teams in the league
- Relegation zone: 10th of 12
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Larne
- homePortadown1:0
- homeLimavady United1:1
- awayBangor2:1
- homeLinfield1:2
- homeColeraine2:3
Dungannon Swifts
- homeCliftonville1:3
- awayBangor0:0
- homeCarrick Rangers2:4
- awayGlentoran0:2
- homeBallymena United1:1
Head to head
- 04/25/26Premiership8:0
- 03/13/26Premiership2:1
- 11/29/25Premiership2:1
- 10/04/25Premiership0:2
- 04/01/25Premiership1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Northern Ireland, Premiership: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.