Both teams to score
Yes48%
ours 2.07
No52%
ours 1.93
All matches
—
Larne — Portadown, NIFL Premiership
Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership
Larne
3.1WWWWW
Portadown
1.2DLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
77%15%
Larne77%Draw15%Portadown8%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Larne1.30—
XDraw6.49—
2Portadown13.28—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLarnePortadownCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners15.06.310.7
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LarnePortadown
Larne FC 77%, Portadown FC 8%. The safest is “Larne FC or draw” at 88%.
Larne FC 77%Draw 15%Portadown FC 8%
1st half
48 · 37 · 16
2nd half
47 · 37 · 16
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Larne
- awayCarrick Rangers5:2
- homeCliftonville2:0
- awayPortadown2:0
- homeBangor1:0
- homeGlentoran2:1
Portadown
- homeLimavady United2:2
- awayBallymena United0:2
- awayBangor1:3
- homeLinfield1:1
- homeLarne0:2
Head to head
- 09/12/26NIFL Premiership2:0
- 02/14/26NIFL Premiership1:2
- 11/07/25NIFL Premiership3:0
- 08/22/25NIFL Premiership4:0
- 02/15/25NIFL Premiership0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Coleraine1081122:1025
Coleraine1081122:10252
Linfield971112:622
Linfield971112:6223Larne651012:316
Larne651012:3164
Glentoran1051415:1016
Glentoran1051415:10165
Crusaders1050515:1815
Crusaders1050515:18156
Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
Carrick Rangers1041515:15137
Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
Dungannon Swifts94149:10138
Ballymena United933313:1112
Ballymena United933313:11129
Cliftonville1040612:1212
Cliftonville1040612:121210
Limavady United93159:1310
Limavady United93159:131011
Bangor1012710:225
Bangor1012710:22512Portadown100287:212
Portadown100287:212Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.